Summary of Johnston, Hagen, and Jamieson: Dynamics of the 2000 presidential campaign -- Adam Brown, BYU Political Science

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Johnston, Hagen, and Jamieson: Dynamics of the 2000 presidential campaign

Disclaimer. Don't rely on these old notes in lieu of reading the literature, but they can jog your memory. As a grad student long ago, my peers and I collaborated to write and exchange summaries of political science research. I posted them to a wiki-style website. "Wikisum" is now dead but archived here. I cannot vouch for these notes' accuracy, nor can I say who wrote them.

Johnston, Hagen, and Jamieson. 2001. Dynamics of the 2000 presidential campaign: Evidence from the Annenberg Survey.. APSA conference.

Overview

The Annenberg studies of the 2000 presidential campaign show that our current theories of campaigns are somewhat lacking. Largely an exploratory paper with some preliminary conclusions.

Data

The Annenberg survey took daily random samples from July through November. Smoothing the data (Fig 1) make it possible to investigate the moments in the campaign where things changed. Obviously, there were daily spikes and drops in Gore's support, but, when smoothed, 7 shifts appear to have been permanent (expressed in terms of Gore's support):

The drop after Bush's acceptance speech,
The surge before the Dem convention,
The surge after Gore's acceptance speech,
Gore's mid-September surge,
Gore's late-September (small) drop,
Gore's surge after the last debate,
and Gore's (small) drop about a week later.

Theoretical Explanations

The authors use advanced stats to differentiate variables with a time-series (longitudinal) effect from those with only a cross-sectional effect.

Clinton: Clinton's popularity appears to have had a cross-sectional effect on Gore.
The macroeconomy: It appears to have had a mild longitudinal effect.
Character: Drops in Gore's perceived virtue (and rises in Bush's) appear to have had strong longitudinal effects.
Other: Party ID and ideology matter too.

Speculation

The authors speculate that, of the 7 shifts in Gore's support, shifts 4, 6, and 7 suggest that the media matter. Something in the media or in political ads must have triggered that shift, perhaps by first triggering the changes in Gore's (and Bush's) perceived character qualities.

Comments and Criticisms

This is aggregate data, so it can't tell us who is changing their mind and why.
Y is always support for Gore; this assumes that support for Gore is 100 - support for Bush. But what about the undecided vote? See Hillygus and Jackman (2003) fig 2: the proportion of undecideds moves up and down during the campaign. Would that change this study's results?

Research by the same authors

Research on similar subjects

Hillygus and Jackman: Voter decision making in election 2000 (6 shared tags)
Popkin: The reasoning voter (5 shared tags)
Stapel and Schwarz: The Republican who did not want to become president (5 shared tags)
Clinton and Lapinski: "Targeted" advertising and voter turnout (4 shared tags)
Erikson, MacKuen, and Stimson: What moves macropartisanship (4 shared tags)
Gerber et al: Personality and Political Attitudes: Relationships across Issue Domains and Political Contexts (4 shared tags)
Merrill, Grofman, and Brunell: Cycles in American National Electoral Politics, 1854-2006: Statistical Evidence and an Explanatory Model (4 shared tags)
Miller, Krosnick, and Fabrigar: The origins of policy issue salience (4 shared tags)

Tags

Johnston, Richard (author) • Hagen, Michael (author) • Jamieson, Kathleen Hall (author) • American Politics • Voting • Partisanship • Public Opinion • Media Effects • Decision Making

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