Hillygus and Jackman: Voter decision making in election 2000
Disclaimer. Don't rely on these old notes in lieu of reading the literature, but they can jog your memory. As a grad student long ago, my peers and I collaborated to write and exchange summaries of political science research. I posted them to a wiki-style website. "Wikisum" is now dead but archived here. I cannot vouch for these notes' accuracy, nor can I say who wrote them.
Hillygus and Jackman. 2003. Voter decision making in election 2000: Campaign effects, partisan activation, and the Clinton lega. AJPS 47: 583-96.
Main Point
By looking at panel data using daily surveys during the 2000 campaign, we can see what kinds of voters are likely to switch vote choice, and when. Aggregate data (e.g. Johnston et al 2001) does not allow us to say 'who' is changing their mind, only that aggregate support for each candidate has changed.
Findings
- Gore "won" the conventions: The convention brought increased support from Democrats, independents, and the undecided.
- Bush "won" the debates: They brought him increased support from Republicans, independents, and the undecided.
- Partisans were more likely to change their minds if they were less interested in the campaign--probably because the highly interested partisans made up their minds in advance.
- Clinton disapproval interacted with the effects above (see Fig 3). E.g. people who disliked Clinton responded less to Gore's win at the conventions, but people who liked Clinton responded more. Vice versa for Bush and the debates.
Data
Survey data conducted from a randomly selected panel frequently during the campaign season. Many responses every day. Panel effects are minimized because the panel answered only a few political questions mixed in with frequent marketing surveys.
Criticism
- Generally good. Johnston et al (2001) identify 7 moments in the 2000 campaign when Gore support clearly changed. Too bad this study looks only at the conventions and debates, and not at the other changes.
Research on similar subjects
- Johnston, Hagen, and Jamieson: Dynamics of the 2000 presidential campaign (6 shared tags)
- Popkin: The reasoning voter (5 shared tags)
- Stapel and Schwarz: The Republican who did not want to become president (5 shared tags)
- Campbell, Green, and Layman: The Party Faithful: Partisan Images, Candidate Religion, and the Electoral Impact of Party Identification (4 shared tags)
- Campbell, Converse, Miller, and Stokes: The American voter (4 shared tags)
- Druckman, Kifer, and Parkin: Campaign Communications in U.S. Congressional Elections (4 shared tags)
- MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson: Macropartisanship (4 shared tags)
- Merrill, Grofman, and Brunell: Cycles in American National Electoral Politics, 1854-2006: Statistical Evidence and an Explanatory Model (4 shared tags)
Tags
Hillygus, D Sunshine (author) • Jackman, Simon (author) • American Politics • Voting • Partisanship • Public Opinion • Media Effects • Decision Making
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