Disclaimer. Don't rely on these old notes in lieu of reading the literature, but they can jog your memory. As a grad student long ago, my peers and I collaborated to write and exchange summaries of political science research. I posted them to a wiki-style website. "Wikisum" is now dead but archived here. I cannot vouch for these notes' accuracy, nor can I say who wrote them.
Niou and Paolino. 2003. The rise of the opposition party in Taiwan: Explaining Chen Shiui-bian's victory in the 2000 presid. Electoral Studies 22.
In 2000, the KMT candidate (Lien) lost with only 23.1%. An independent (Soong) took 36.8, and the opposition (DPP) candidate (Chen) won with 39.3%. Why did the KMT lose (for the first time) in 2000? There were a few popular explanations that the authors want to test:
Uses survey data collected during the non-polling period. (It's legal to collect data, just not to report it during this period.)
Still, the authors wouldn't be surprised if there were soon calls to lift the ban on polls.
Research by the same authors
Research on similar subjects