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Theilmann and Wilhite. 1998. Campaign tactics and the decision to attack. JOP 60:1050-62.
An empirical piece hoping to test two competing theories (though its design does not allow it to do so; see criticism below).
An experimental survey. They contacted 100 or so campaign consultants (with actual experience), presented them with a series of situations (manipulating their candidate's position in the polls), and asked what mix of positive and negative ads they would use.
The authors are incorrect to claim that, if H&H are right, there will be no correlation between poll data and recommended spending. Consider this: if candidate characteristics are important, then the consultants will try to extract the information they need from the survey. Since they are provided with little information, they might try to use polling data as an information shortcut to estimate the candidate's personal characteristics. Thus, given the structure of the design, S&G are observationally equivalent with H&H: both models predict a correlation between poll data and negative ads.
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Tags
Theilmann, John (author) • Wilhite, Allen (author) • Political Science • American Politics • Public Opinion • Media Effects • Elections • Campaign Advertisements
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