Disclaimer. Don't rely on these old notes in lieu of reading the literature, but they can jog your memory. As a grad student long ago, my peers and I collaborated to write and exchange summaries of political science research. I posted them to a wiki-style website. "Wikisum" is now dead but archived here. I cannot vouch for these notes' accuracy, nor can I say who wrote them.
Gurr. 2000. Peoples versus States: Minorities at Risk in the New Century. Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.
See Figure 3.1 for a very nice summary. Roughly, this is the causal chain, with 4 main X's and one Y (ethnic action) that can take two forms (peaceful protest or violent rebellion) depending on three additional X's:
Domestic factors determine whether action will be protest or rebellion: (a) democratic vs authoritarian norms and institutions; (b) state ability to put down a rebellion (strong state --> peace, weak --> rebel); (c) elite traditions of either accomodation or repression of segmental interests (like class, religion, and ethnicity).
International factors can also support ethnic action: (a) global doctrines of nationalism and minority rights; (b) regional/global networks of ethnic/religious kindred; (c) diffusion of conflict from similar groups elsewhere; (d) external political or material support.
Figure 3.1 gives bullet point descriptions of the causes of each of the four main X's.
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