Disclaimer. Don't rely on these old notes in lieu of reading the literature, but they can jog your memory. As a grad student long ago, my peers and I collaborated to write and exchange summaries of political science research. I posted them to a wiki-style website. "Wikisum" is now dead but archived here. I cannot vouch for these notes' accuracy, nor can I even say who wrote them. If you have more recent summaries to add to this collection, send them my way I guess. Sorry for the ads; they cover the costs of keeping this online.
Green, Palmquist, and Schickler. 1998. Macropartisanship: A replication and critique. APSR 92: 883-900.
This is a response to MacKuen et al. (1989); see their reply in Erikson et al. (1998). Although MacKuen et al. think they proved that partisanship varies in response to short-term forces, Green et al. counter that partisanship is, in fact, a strong psychological attachment (at the micro level) and a generally stable phenomenon (at the macrolevel).
MacKuen et al presented persuasive evidence that partisan realignment is an ongoing process, affected by shifts in consumer sentiment and presidential approval. Replicating their work with additional data, Green et al. find results in the same direction but with half the magnitude. Thus, although macropartisanship does fluctuate, short-term effects (consumer sentiment and presidential approval) have only half the effect that the earlier study suggested. Given that these fluctuations are smaller, and that they move back and forth, Green et al. conclude that the earlier view of realignment remains persuasive: partisanship is generally stable, except for occasional significant realignments.
Figure 1 presents an update of MacKuen et al's Figure 1.
MacKuen et al had included dummies for each president; by removing these dummies, Green et al found a weaker relationship. (Erikson et al's response takes aim at this point).
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